业务预测方法:令人印象深刻的进展,落后的实施
Paul Goodwin1, Jim Hoover2, Spyros Makridakis3
1School of Management, University of Bath, Bath, United Kingdom.
PloS one
|December 14, 2023
概括
组织可以通过先进的预测方法来改善决策,但许多组织未能采用这些方法. 本研究探讨了采用率低的原因,并提出了更广泛使用系统预测的途径.
科学领域:
- 运营研究 运营研究
- 业务分析 业务分析
- 管理科学 管理科学
背景情况:
- 准确的预测对于各种行业的运营和财务业绩至关重要.
- 最近预测方法的进步为提高准确性提供了显著的潜力.
- 尽管有好处,但许多组织没有采用系统的预测实践.
研究的目的:
- 提供最近预测技术进步的概述.
- 调查系统预测方法采用率较低背后的原因.
- 确定促进更广泛使用先进预测的战略.
主要方法:
- 对近期预测进步的文献综述.
- 分析使用预测的组织调查数据的分析.
- 与预测专业人士进行深入的半结构化采访.
主要成果:
- 组织面临的障碍是采用先进的预测方法.
- 缺乏意识,感知复杂性和资源不足阻碍了采用.
- 特定的组织和技术因素影响了新预测工具的采用.
结论:
- 尽管有证实的好处,但系统预测的采用仍然很低.
- 解决已识别的障碍对于增加先进预测的使用至关重要.
- 实施有针对性的战略可以促进更广泛的采用,并提高组织绩效.
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