在等待得分.等待得分. 转换概率和足球点球中的视频助理裁判 (VAR)
Joran Veldkamp1, Ruud H Koning2
1Atlas Research, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Journal of sports sciences
|December 15, 2023
概括
足球中的视频助理裁判 (VAR) 不会根据罚球前的延迟影响罚球成功率. 然而,VAR干预会对罚球转换概率产生负面影响,建议球队应为这种不确定性做好准备.
科学领域:
- 运动分析 运动分析
- 足球表现分析 足球表现分析
- 裁判技术 裁判技术
背景情况:
- 视频助理裁判 (VAR) 的引入改变了足球比赛的动态,特别是在点球过程中.
- 以前,点球决定是最终的;现在,VAR审查和现场检查可以显著增加犯规和点球执行之间的时间.
研究的目的:
- 调查犯规和点球之间的时间间隔对转换概率的影响.
- 评估VAR干预对罚球成功率的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用logit模型分析了欧洲顶级联赛和欧足联冠军联赛5个赛季 (2015/2016-2019/2020) 2888次罚球的数据.
- 统计分析检查了时间间隔持续时间,VAR干预和惩罚转换结果之间的相关性.
主要成果:
- 犯规和点球执行之间的时间没有显著影响得分的概率.
- 发现VAR干预对罚球转换概率有统计学上显著的负面影响.
结论:
- 通过VAR审查引入的时间延迟本身并不会降低处罚成功率.
- VAR干预引入了一种不确定性的因素,它会对罚球转换产生负面影响,这是足球队在训练策略中应考虑的因素.
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