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预测Omicron肺炎老年患者死亡风险的临床特征:MLWAP得分

Yongjian Pei¹, Ting Li¹, Chen Chen¹

¹Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, 1055 SanXiang Road, Gusu District, Suzhou, 215004, Jiangsu, China.

Internal and emergency medicine

|December 16, 2023

概括

一个新的MLWAP得分有效预测了老年患者患有Omicron肺炎的死亡率. 这种工具有助于临床医生进行风险分层和资源配置,以获得更好的患者结果.

科学领域:

医学医学医学医学医学
传染性疾病传染性疾病
老年病的医生老年病的医生

背景情况:

在2022年晚些时候,SARS-CoV-2的Omicron变种导致了不同严重程度的广泛感染.
预测患有Omicron肺炎的老年人死亡风险对于有效的临床管理至关重要.

研究的目的:

开发和验证一个评分模型,用于预测老年患者 (≥60岁) 住院患有Omicron肺炎的死亡风险.

主要方法:

一个多变量逻辑回归模型被用来确定227名符合条件的患者的死亡率预测因素.
患者被随机分配到一个训练集 (70%) 用于模型开发和一个测试集 (30%) 用于验证.
模型性能使用接收器操作特征曲线 (AUC) 下的面积,Hosmer-Lemeshow测试和校准曲线进行评估,并将其与CURB-65和PSI分数进行比较.

主要成果:

开发的MLWAP得分包括免疫抑制,乳酸盐水平,白细胞计数,年龄和PaO2/FiO2比率.
MLWAP得分显示出强大的预测能力,AUC为0.852 (训练) 和0.875 (测试),表现比CURB-65和PSI得分更好.
根据分数范围 (分别为0-7,8-10,11-13) 建立了低,中,高等级的风险分层.

结论:

MLWAP-死亡率得分是对患有Omicron肺炎的住院老年人死亡风险分层的验证工具.
这一分数可以帮助临床医生优化医疗资源分配,并可能降低死亡率.

关键词:

这是一种Omicron肺炎.预测死亡率的方法预测得分模型的预测得分模型.这就是SARS-CoV-2病毒.

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