法医黑子研究中的顺序结果的可靠性
Hina M Arora1, Naomi Kaplan-Damary2, Hal S Stern3
1Department of Statistics, Donald Bren School of Information and Computer Sciences, University of California, Room 2231, 6210 Donald Bren Hall, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
Forensic science international
|December 17, 2023
概括
法医专家在案件工作中做出主观,有序的决定. 一种新的统计方法分析了"黑子"研究,以量化决策可靠性和审查员和样本之间的差异.
科学领域:
- 法医科学 法医科学 法医科学
- 统计分析 统计分析
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 隐藏印记,弹道学和鞋印分析等法医学科依赖于主观的专家决定,通常使用顺序类别.
- 这些主观决定的可靠性和准确性至关重要,因为它们对法律诉讼有重大影响.
- "黑子"研究通常用于评估决策可靠性,通过让专家分析已知和质疑的证据样本.
研究的目的:
- 开发和介绍一种统计方法,用于分析法医"黑子"研究中的顺序决策.
- 推断法医专家决定的可靠性,并量化变化来源.
- 评估可归因于检查员,证据样本和检查员-样本相互作用的变化.
主要方法:
- 一种新的统计模型,旨在分析来自"黑子"试验的顺序数据.
- 进行模拟研究以评估模型在已知参数值的性能.
- 该模型应用于来自手写签名,隐藏指纹和手写比较研究的现实数据.
主要成果:
- 统计方法提供了关于主观法医决策可靠性的推断.
- 量化归因于个别审查员的决策变异性.
- 评估因证据样本的复杂性和检查者样本相互作用而产生的变异.
结论:
- 拟议的统计方法为评估"黑子"研究中法医专家决策的可靠性提供了一个强大的方法.
- 了解变化的来源对于提高法医分析的准确性和一致性至关重要.
- 这种方法可以应用于各种法医学科,涉及主观的,普通的评估.
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