净零航空:过渡障碍和激进的气候政策设计影响
Stefan Gössling1, Andreas Humpe2
1Western Norway Research Institute, PO Box 163, 6851 Sogndal, Norway; School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University, 391 82 Kalmar, Sweden.
The Science of the total environment
|December 17, 2023
概括
实现净零航空面临重大过渡障碍. 政策场景,而不是航空公司的增长,提供了一条更可靠的去碳化道路,尽管存在财务挑战.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 运输研究 运输研究
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 降低航空运输的碳排放量至关重要,但面临着许多"过渡障碍".
- 对阻碍净零航空目标的复杂性给予了有限的关注.
- 这些障碍包括缓解,管理,技术,燃料,金融和治理.
研究的目的:
- 识别和分析航空运输脱碳的障碍.
- 评估航空部门为转型提供资金的财务可行性.
- 开发和评估实现净零航空的政策场景.
主要方法:
- 40个过渡障碍的识别和分类.
- 分析全球航空系统的增长,收入和利能力 (1978-2022年).
- 开发和模拟未来航空运输的四个激进政策场景.
主要成果:
- 全球航空业在1978-2022年间产生了边际利 (0.94美元/乘客).
- 该行业的低利能力 (总计820亿美元) 不足以为估计的0.5-2.1万亿美元的燃料过渡成本提供资金.
- 所有四种政策场景,包括碳税或燃料任务等限制,都显示出比现状增长模型更可靠的净零路径.
结论:
- 严重的金融和系统性障碍阻碍了航空运输的脱碳化.
- 目前的航空公司商业模式不太可能为必要的燃料转型提供资金.
- 政策干预是必不可少的,并且比依靠持续的数量增长更有效,以实现净零航空.
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