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人类队列中的精算衰老率
Leonid A Gavrilov1,2, Natalia S Gavrilova3,2
1NORC at the University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA. lagavril@yahoo.com.
Biochemistry. Biokhimiia
|December 17, 2023
概括
用Gompertz斜率参数测量的人类衰老率,在出生队列中显示出不同的模式. 大多数人群经历了衰老率的下降,有些人后来增加,挑战了以前的横截面发现.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 人口健康 人口健康
背景情况:
- 衰老速度是人类衰老的一个关键特征.
- 之前使用横截面数据的研究表明,老龄化率稳定或增加.
- 对真实出生队伍的分析提供了对衰老动态的更准确的理解.
研究的目的:
- 分析人类队伍中精算衰老率的历史变化.
- 调查不同人口和出生年龄的衰老率变化模式.
- 在人类队伍中测试死亡率 (CEM) 的补偿效应.
主要方法:
- 利用了从人类死亡率数据库 (HMD) 获取的一年队列年龄特定死亡率.
- 估计的Gompertz参数在50-80岁的年龄区间为2,294个队伍从76个人口.
- 分析了保险学衰老率的Gompertz斜率参数的历史趋势.
主要成果:
- 在整个队列中观察到两种不同的保险学衰老率变化模式.
- 较高的死亡率 东欧国家从1910年至1940年的出生队列持续下降.
- 较低死亡率的国家 (西欧,澳大利亚,加拿大,日本,新西兰,美国) 最初出现下降,随后在1930年出生后增加.
- 总体而言,68%的人口表现出随着时间的推移,精算老龄化率的下降趋势.
- 在人类队伍中证实了死亡率 (CEM) 的补偿效应.
- 队列物种特定寿命估计与先前的横截面数据保持一致.
结论:
- 人类队伍中的精算衰老率显示出复杂的历史模式,根据人口死亡率水平而异.
- 该研究强调了基于队列的分析对横截面数据的重要性,以了解衰老的动态.
- 死亡率的补偿效应是人类衰老的一个重要因素,影响了预期寿命的估计.
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