自行截断的采样产生了比描述频率信息更适度的协变判断和相关决定:回归频率估计的作用
1Department of Psychology and Behavioral Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
PsyCh journal
|December 18, 2023
概括
当人们从经验中学习而不是从描述中学习时,人们对事物之间的关系做出更温和的判断,这在两项关于协变判断和决策的研究中是一致的发现.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 共变判断对于心理学理论和日常决策至关重要.
- 可以通过频率描述 (应急表) 或直接经验 (采样实例) 获得用于共变判断的信息.
研究的目的:
- 调查信息学习模式 (描述与自我截断采样) 如何影响共变性判断和相关决策.
- 确定导致观察到的判断和决策差异的潜在机制.
主要方法:
- 两项实验采用了另一套设计,将应急表频率与经验频率相匹配,以控制采样错误.
- 参与者从展示的应急表中或通过抽样实例学习共变信息,直到他们选择停止.
主要成果:
- 与描述条件相比,自我截断的抽样 (经验) 条件导致了较为温和的协变判断,造成了"描述-经验差距".
- 这种差距扩展到与共变相关的决策,特别是相对条件偏好 (RCP).
- 在自我截断采样下回归频率估计被确定为观察到的差距的潜在解释.
结论:
- 获取信息的方式显著影响共变性判断和决策,经验产生更温和的结果.
- "描述经验差距"是一个强大的现象,延伸到决策.
- 未来的研究应该探索信念更新和停止规则作为这些观察到的影响的替代解释.
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