国家和抗议者暴力如何影响抗议动态
Zachary C Steinert-Threlkeld1, Alexander M Chan1, Jungseock Joo1
1University of California, Los Angeles.
概括
国家镇压可以增加抗议规模到一个点,然后减少它,而抗议者的暴力持续缩小了抗议活动. 这项研究使用社交媒体数据来分析抗议动态和暴力.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 冲突研究 冲突研究
背景情况:
- 之前关于暴力和抗议动态的研究产生了相互矛盾的结果.
- 了解国家镇压,抗议者暴力和抗议规模之间的关系对于分析社会运动至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查国家镇压严重程度与抗议规模之间的微妙关系.
- 检查抗议者暴力对随后抗议规模的影响.
- 通过使用社交媒体数据,开发精确的测量技术来衡量抗议动态.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种利用卷积神经网络 (CNN) 的新型数据管道来分析地理位置的推文.
- 应用CNN来估计国家和抗议者暴力,抗议规模和抗议者人口统计 (年龄,性别) 的连续值.
- 收集了五个国家的24个城市的数据,以城市日为基础.
主要成果:
- 在国家镇压的严重程度和每日抗议规模的变化之间观察到一个n形关系.
- 发现抗议者暴力减少了抗议的吸引力,增加了抗议的感知成本,导致随后的抗议活动规模较小.
- 该研究提供了对关键抗议动态的精确,数据驱动的估计.
结论:
- 这些发现为长期以来的镇压与异见题提供了潜在的解决方案.
- 这项研究强调了社交媒体数据和机器学习对于理解次国家冲突和抗议运动的有用性.
- 这项研究有助于在社会科学研究中利用数字数据的日益增长的工作.
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