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全面的因素分析和风险量化研究,对从高处落事故的研究
Jun Long Peng1, Xiao Liu1, Chao Peng1
1Changsha University of Science & Technology, Chang Sha City, China.
Heliyon
|December 18, 2023
概括
低安全意识是造成高空落事故的主要原因. 这项研究开发了一种新的综合风险分析模型,以更好地了解和预防这些建筑中的危险事件.
科学领域:
- 职业安全与健康问题 职业安全与健康问题
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 事故分析 事故分析
背景情况:
- 在高处工作带来重大风险,需要对高空落 (FFH) 事件进行科学调查.
- 现有的研究缺乏对FFH事故中因果因素之间的相互作用的全面评估.
- 在建筑施工中需要改进安全管理和预防措施.
研究的目的:
- 引入FFH事故的综合风险分析模型.
- 确定FFH事件中的影响因素及其相互关系.
- 提供一种科学有效的方法来分析FFH事故,并为安全实践提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用事件报告和多个案例的根源理论来识别有影响力的元素.
- 雇员灰色决策实验室 (灰色DEMATEL) 和解释性结构建模 (ISM) 用于网络建设.
- 使用GeNie2.0软件,根据420个事故案例,将网络模型转换为贝叶斯网络 (BN).
主要成果:
- 确定"安全意识低" (A5) 作为FFH事故的最重要因素.
- 揭示了因果因素之间的动态和非线性相互联系,而不仅仅是独立和线性关系.
- 确定FFH事件发生的概率高达57%,并对每个贡献组件的概率进行排名.
结论:
- 开发的综合风险分析模型在科学上是有效的,适用于分析FFH事故.
- 该模型为承包商提供了精确的风险信息,以改善安全管理和优先考虑预防措施.
- 促进知情决策,以减轻FFH风险,提高建筑环境中的工作场所安全.
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