一种物种对空间气候变化的反应并不能预测其对气候变化的反应
Daniel L Perret1, Margaret E K Evans2, Dov F Sax1,3
1Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912.
概括
使用空间气候数据预测生态对气候变化的反应是误导性的. 时间气候变化,通过分析过去的时间反应,准确地预测像Ponderosa松这样的物种将如何应对不断变化的气候条件.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 古气候学 古气候学
背景情况:
- 目前的生态模型使用物种在气候梯度上的表现预测气候变化影响.
- 这种空间方法可能有缺陷,如果过去对当地气候变化的反应随着时间的推移更具预测性.
研究的目的:
- 实证测试空间或时间气候变化是否更好地预测生态对气候变化的反应.
- 评估主导生态预测范式的预测准确度.
主要方法:
- 使用了一个新的 ponderosa松树环时间序列网络.
- 将空间气候变化的预测与时间气候变化的预测与自1980年以来观察到的树木生长进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 基于空间气候变化的预测不准确地反映了观测到的大小和方向的树木生长反应.
- 来自时间气候变化的预测成功地复制了观测到的树木生长反应.
- 未来的气候场景加剧了这些差异.
结论:
- 使用空间气候变化来预测生态影响的占主导地位的范式可能对十年到百年时间尺度具有误导性.
- 时间气候变化为预测物种对气候变化的反应提供了更可靠的方法.
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