评估干旱风险适应的关键行为理论:来自肯尼亚农村的证据
Teun Schrieks1, W J Wouter Botzen1,2, Toon Haer1
1Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, North-Holland, The Netherlands.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|December 18, 2023
概括
非洲之角的干旱威胁着人们的生计. 经济理论最好地解释了适应,风险和时间偏好至关重要. 诸如自我效能和同行影响等社会因素也推动了干旱适应的决策.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 环境心理学 环境心理学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 非洲之角的干旱地区面临着越来越严重的干旱.
- 干旱威胁着传统的农村生计.
- 了解社区适应对于减轻干旱影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究农村适应干旱的行为.
- 评估经济 (EUT,RDU) 和社会心理 (PMT,TPB) 理论的风险决策.
- 确定肯尼亚干旱地区适应决策的关键驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 肯尼亚的家庭调查 (N=502).
- 回归分析来测试四个决策理论.
- 对适应措施类型和影响因素的分析.
主要成果:
- 经济理论 (EUT,RDU) 最适合的适应数据.
- 风险和时间偏好显著影响适应选择.
- 感知到的自我效能和社会影响影响适应决策.
- 性别,教育,财务准入和援助影响了适应措施的选择.
结论:
- 经济和社会心理因素决定了干旱地区社区的适应决策.
- 避免风险的个人更喜欢调整而不是生计转移.
- 政策干预应考虑个人信仰,社会网络和社会经济因素,以有效适应干旱.
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