气候对自然资本全球价值的影响不平等
B A Bastien-Olvera1,2, M N Conte3, X Dong4
1Geography Graduate Group, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA. bbastien@ucsd.edu.
Nature
|December 19, 2023
概括
到2100年,气候变化将使全球生态系统受益减少9.2%,国内生产总值 (GDP) 减少1.3%. 气候变化对经济生产和自然资本造成的负面影响.
科学领域:
- 生态与环境科学
- 气候变化经济学
- 生态系统服务估值
背景情况:
- 生态系统为人类提供了重要的市场和非市场利益.
- 预计气候变化将改变生态系统的分布和这些好处的流动.
- 了解这些生态系统变化的社会经济影响对于人类福祉至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计因气候变化引起的陆地植被变化的国家级经济生产变化.
- 量化受气候变化影响的非市场生态系统利益的价值.
- 根据国家对自然资本的依赖来评估对国家的差异性影响.
主要方法:
- 使用由一般循环气候模型驱动的动态全球植被模型 (DGVM) 来预测植被变化.
- 全国国内生产总值 (GDP) 的估计变化.
- 使用世界银行财富账户指标估值的非市场生态系统利益.
主要成果:
- 预计在SSP2-6.0下,到2100年全球非市场生态系统的收益将减少9.2%.
- 预计到2100年全球平均GDP减少1.3%.
- 确定了回归性影响,最贫穷的50%的国家承担了90%的损失,而最富有的10%的国家只承担了2%的损失.
结论:
- 气候变化引起的生态系统变化带来了重大经济风险,尤其对低收入国家.
- 评估生态系统服务对于了解气候变化的全部经济后果至关重要.
- 需要采取政策干预措施,以减轻气候变化对脆弱经济体造成的不成比例负担.
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