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临床预测模型和疯狂的多元宇宙
Richard D Riley1,2, Alexander Pate3, Paula Dhiman4
1College of Medical and Dental Sciences, Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK. r.d.riley@bham.ac.uk.
BMC medicine
|December 19, 2023
概括
由于数据不稳定,临床预测模型往往不可靠. 使用更大的数据集和可视化预测变异可以提高医疗保健决策中的模型可靠性和公平性.
科学领域:
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
背景情况:
- 每年有成千上万的临床预测模型被开发用于医疗保健诊断和预后.
- 大多数开发的模型缺乏广泛采用临床实践所需的可靠性.
研究的目的:
- 讨论数据样本大小和变异对临床预测模型可靠性的影响.
- 突出"多元宇宙"模型和预测不稳定性的概念.
- 推评估和减轻预测不稳定的方法.
主要方法:
- 探索如何不同的数据样本,即使是相同的大小,也可以导致截然不同的预测模型.
- 演示如何引导和不稳定图表可以揭示潜在模型中个体预测的变化.
- 强调小开发数据集与模型不稳定性增加之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 模型创建高度依赖于使用的特定数据样本,导致可能的模型的"多元".
- 较小的开发数据集导致更大的模型可变性和不稳定的个体预测.
- 预测中的不稳定性可以使用诸如引导和不稳定性图形等技术来量化和可视化.
结论:
- 预测模型的不稳定性是一个重大问题,因为它会影响个体患者的咨询和临床决策.
- 在提出新的临床模型时,可视化和量化预测不稳定性至关重要.
- 建议使用大型模型开发数据集来提高可靠性,子组性能和公平性.
关键词:
引导绑定 (Bootstrapping) 是一个非常简单的方法.临床预测模型的临床预测模型.不稳定 不稳定 不稳定.平均绝对预测误差 (MAPE) 的意思风险预测风险预测差异差异是指差异的差异.更多相关视频
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