在应用生态和保护证据库中评估时间不稳定性
Elizabeth Brisco1, Elena Kulinskaya2, Julia Koricheva1
1Department of Biological Sciences, Royal Holloway University of London, Egham, UK.
Research synthesis methods
|December 19, 2023
概括
在生态元分析中,影响大小和意义的时间趋势是常见的,这可能是过时的建议. 建议进行累积的元分析,以解决应用生态学的这些广泛变化.
科学领域:
- 应用生态学 应用生态学
- 保护科学 保护科学
- 环境管理环境管理
背景情况:
- 超分析对于基于证据的决策至关重要.
- 在元分析结果的快速时间变化可以很快使建议变得过时.
研究的目的:
- 在应用生态与保护领域的元分析中,评估累积效应的大小和统计意义的时间趋势.
- 为了确定这些时间变化的模式和程度.
主要方法:
- 分析了2004年至2018年间发表在应用生态和保护学杂志上的121个元分析.
- 研究了累积效应大小和统计学意义的时间趋势.
- 研究了调节者和样本大小变化的影响.
主要成果:
- 93%的元分析显示了效果大小或意义的时间趋势;27%显示了两者的趋势.
- "早期研究效应"是最常见的趋势.
- 在计算调节者后,时间趋势在很大程度上持续存在;样本大小的变化很少有解释性.
结论:
- 分析结果的广泛时间变化对保护和环境管理中的可靠决策构成重大威胁.
- 该研究建议使用累积元分析来缓解这些问题.
- 需要进一步的研究来探索这些时间效应的潜在原因.
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