在IUCN红色名单评估中包括气候变化反应的标准方法
Giordano Mancini1, Luca Santini1, Victor Cazalis2,3
1Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin,", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.
概括
气候变化对物种产生影响
科学领域:
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 气候变化生态学 气候变化生态学
- 生物多样性评估 生物多样性评估
背景情况:
- 国际自然保护联盟 (IUCN) 红色名单对于监测灭绝风险和为政策提供信息至关重要.
- 将气候变化作为灭绝驱动因素纳入IUCN评估是一个挑战.
- 现有的方法往往不能提供国际自然保护联盟 (IUCN) 所要求的具体危指标.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种标准化的方法来量化气候变化对物种息地质量影响.
- 为IUCN红色名单的A3标准提供信息,重点关注未来的人口减少.
- 评估因气候变化而导致物种红色名单类别的潜在变化.
主要方法:
- 根据当前和未来的生物气候变量定义物种的气候.
- 通过比较当前和未来的利基适应性来建模气候变化影响.
- 利用了替代模型算法,分散场景,排放场景和气候模型.
- 专注于陆地无欲四足动物作为一个案例研究.
主要成果:
- 171个物种 (13%),如果无法散播,可能会面临根据标准A3的更糟糕的红色名单类别.
- 14个物种 (1.5%) 即使在最大分散能力的情况下,也可能会看到它们的类别恶化.
- 该方法通过息地质量变化量化气候变化影响.
结论:
- 开发的方法为IUCN红色名单评估提供了评估气候变化影响的标准化方法.
- 考虑气候变化影响可以提高红色名单评估的准确性和一致性.
- 这种方法可以帮助减轻错误分类,并加强全球生物多样性政策.
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