对所有国家的人类亲属关系的预测
Diego Alburez-Gutierrez1, Iván Williams2, Hal Caswell3
1Kinship Inequalities Research Group, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock 18057, Germany.
概括
未来的人口变化将大大减少活着的亲属数量,影响非正式护理的可用性. 预测显示,亲属关系在全球显著下降,随着家庭网络的老龄化和照顾者的压力增加.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 老年学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 人口预测传统上侧重于规模和组成,忽视了家庭网络的影响.
- 亲属关系结构对于非正式照顾至关重要,但它们的可用性取决于活着的亲属.
研究的目的:
- 从1950年到2100年,预测生物亲属的规模,组成和年龄分布.
- 分析这些人口变化对非正式护理服务的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用人口预测模型预测生物亲属的可用性.
- 分析了不同时间段对个人亲属数量和年龄的变化.
主要成果:
- 预计每个人活着的亲属数量将在全球范围内急剧下降 (例如,65岁女性的亲属数量将减少38%).
- 观察到家庭网络组成的转变,年长的亲属 (祖父母) 增加,年轻的亲属 (孙子,表亲) 减少.
- 表明家庭网络的显著衰老,扩大了个人与亲属之间的年龄差距.
结论:
- 预计亲属供应的变化将给社会支持系统带来压力.
- 家庭网络日益老龄化,需要重新评估照顾者的模式.
- 人口变化对家庭团结和关怀的未来有深远的影响.
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