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太阳周期作为一个独特的证据,限制了地球短暂的气候反应
1Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA, USA.
Nature communications
|December 19, 2023
概括
暂时气候反应 (TCR) 的不确定性阻碍了气候模型的准确性. 使用太阳循环强迫的新方法为TCR提供了更严格的,独立的约束,改善了气候敏感性估计.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气物理学 大气物理学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 气候模型对未来变暖的预测在很大程度上依赖于过渡性气候反应 (TCR).
- 几十年来TCR的不确定性,大约100%的平均值,源于强迫不确定性,特别是气溶.
- 现有的TCR观测约束是广泛的,因为强迫不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 为TCR开发一种新的,独立的观测约束.
- 为了减少TCR估计中的不确定性差.
- 为气候模型预测提供更可靠的基础.
主要方法:
- 定义了一个新的气候敏感度指标:依赖时间的响应回归与依赖时间的强迫.
- 利用太阳能周期强制 (11年周期) 来限制TCR (线性时间依赖强制).
- 建立了太阳循环强迫和TCR之间的理论线性关系,在最新的气候模型中得到统计验证.
主要成果:
- 关于TCR的建议观察约束比现有方法要窄得多.
- 确定TCR的中心估计为2.2°C.
- 这一估计位于最新一代气候模型传播的中点.
结论:
- 太阳能循环强制提供了一种强大的,独立的方法来限制TCR.
- 精确的TCR估计提高了气候模型预测的可靠性.
- 最新的气候模型表现出比前几代更高的灵敏度.
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