易感-感染者-易感型COVID-19以集体效应传播
Amanda Crocker1, Daniel Strömbom2
1Department of Biology, Lafayette College, Easton, PA, 18042, USA.
Scientific reports
|December 19, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了一个新的易受感染易受感染 (SIS) 模型,结合集体行为来解释反复出现的COVID-19波. 该模型揭示了集体行为如何影响感染动态和歇斯底里,为流行病振荡提供了洞察力.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
背景情况:
- 现有的COVID-19模型往往缺乏集体行为动态.
- 更简单的易受感染模型无法捕捉复杂的流行病模式.
- 经常出现的个体感染突显了需要包括行为模型的需要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个扩展的易受感染易受感染 (SIS) 模型,包括集体行为.
- 分析集体行为对流行病动态和平衡的影响.
- 解释COVID-19中观察到的振荡现象和歇斯底里.
主要方法:
- 扩展标准SIS模型,包括一个集体行为参数.
- 对模型平衡的分析,包括标准的SIS和新的集体行为影响状态.
- 使用COVID-19传播和恢复率进行参数化.
- 阶段图生成和振荡动态的分析.
- 对随时间变化的集体行为的歇斯底里效应的研究.
主要成果:
- 扩展的SIS模型展示了四个平衡点,包括由集体行为和感染流行率驱动的新状态.
- 类似于节点的或振荡的动态源于集体行为和感染的相互作用.
- 阶段图显示由集体行为参数调节的振荡动态的区域.
- 当集体行为参数随着时间的推移而发生变化时,系统会表现出hysteresis.
结论:
- 开发的模型提供了一个最小的框架,用于理解反复出现的流行病波和歇斯底里症.
- 集体行为是解释SIS型流行病中振荡现象的关键因素.
- 这种方法为包括COVID-19在内的传染病传播的复杂动态提供了新的见解.
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