环境温度和住院患者因呼吸道疾病死亡率的季节性变化:一项追溯观察性研究
Hicham Achebak1,2, Judith Garcia-Aymerich2,3,4, Grégoire Rey1
1Inserm, France Cohortes, Paris, France.
The Lancet regional health. Europe
|December 20, 2023
概括
高温的夏季气温显著增加了住院患者因呼吸道疾病的死亡率,特别是在女性和肺炎等特定疾病中. 如果不采取适应措施,气候变暖可能会加剧这一趋势.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 已知呼吸道疾病死亡率的季节性模式,通常在冬季达到峰值.
- 环境温度,特别是高温在呼吸系统住院患者死亡率中的作用尚不清楚.
- 这项研究调查了环境温度与西班牙呼吸道疾病的住院死亡率之间的关联.
研究的目的:
- 分析致命的呼吸道住院病例的季节性变化.
- 确定环境温度与因呼吸道疾病而导致的住院死亡率之间的关联.
- 量化高温导致的死亡负担.
主要方法:
- 利用马德里和巴塞罗那 (2006-2019) 的每日住院,天气和空气污染物数据.
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 的准波松回归.
- 按性别,年龄和初级诊断进行分层分析.
主要成果:
- 由于呼吸系统疾病导致的住院死亡率在夏季达到顶峰,与高温有很强的联系.
- 高温 (第99百分位) 在马德里增加了39.5%,在巴塞罗那增加了61.2%的致命住院的相对风险.
- 夏季温度占呼吸系统住院患者死亡的16.2% (马德里) 和22.3% (巴塞罗那).
结论:
- 高环境温度是由于呼吸道疾病导致医院内死亡的重要风险因素.
- 女性和患有特定呼吸道疾病 (支气管炎,肺炎,呼吸衰竭) 的个人更容易受到热的影响.
- 气候变暖可能会增加温暖季节呼吸道疾病死亡率的负担,需要适应策略.
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