气候变化在适合55个欧洲电力系统
Matteo De Felice1, Derck Koolen1,2,3, Konstantinos Kanellopoulos1
1European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Petten, The Netherlands.
PloS one
|December 20, 2023
概括
欧洲的电力系统面临着可变可再生能源带来的挑战. 天气模式显著影响可再生能源发电,在整个欧洲创造了不同的相关和反相关的能源生产集群.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 气象学和气候学
- 电力系统可靠性 电力系统可靠性
背景情况:
- 在全球发电中可变可再生能源 (VRE) 的份额越来越大,这给电力系统带来了显著的气象依赖.
- 越来越多的依赖VRE,通常由政策驱动,影响电力系统的可靠性和效率.
- 了解这些气象影响对于未来的能源系统规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在2030年背景下调查自然气象变化的对欧洲电力系统的影响.
- 分析影响可再生能源生产的欧洲主要天气模式.
- 了解欧洲各国可再生能源生产的共同变化.
主要方法:
- 在关键电力系统运行指标中识别模式.
- 分析大规模天气制度与每日电力系统运行之间的关系.
- 欧洲各地区可再生能源发电的同变性分析.
主要成果:
- 欧洲的电力系统倾向于在可再生能源发电的共同变化方面形成两个不同的集群.
- 每个集群内的地区在可再生能源生产中都呈现出正相关性,而集群之间存在负相关性.
- 气旋天气模式与低于正常的碳强度相关,而阻断模式与更高的碳强度相关.
结论:
- 天气模式显著影响欧洲各地可再生能源发电的共同变化.
- 清晰的可再生能源生产集群表明了区域间能源平衡战略的潜力.
- 了解气候制度对碳强度的影响对于优化电力系统运行和脱碳努力至关重要.
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