人们对未来的近视度低于过去的集体结果
Markus Prior1,2, Abdelaziz Alsharawy3, Talbot M Andrews4
1School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
概括
人们在评估未来的政治结果时,比过去的情况少近视. 这表明了更具前性的政策的潜力,挑战了关于广泛的政治近视的假设.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
背景情况:
- 短视,或偏爱现在的结果,可以通过造成低效的支出和对未来挑战的不采取行动来阻碍有效的政策制定.
- 现有的关于政治近视的研究往往忽视了集体结果或未来的前景.
- 了解政治评估中的近视是解决长期政策问题的关键.
研究的目的:
- 为了更准确地测量政治近视,使用适应的行为经济学和心理学方法.
- 在评估过去与未来的集体政治结果时,比较近视.
- 调查人们是否在政治背景下表现出一般近视.
主要方法:
- 从行为经济学和心理学中适应测量技术,以评估集体政治结果中的近视.
- 在三个样本中进行了两次调查,包括基于概率的样本.
- 呈现的受访者与国家条件描述为过去或未来,保持其他因素不变.
主要成果:
- 前性评估 (面向未来) 的近视性明显低于后性评估 (面向过去).
- 在考虑未来的政治条件时,受访者表现出明显较低的近视水平.
- 这些发现挑战了政治评估中普遍近视的假设.
结论:
- 当人们在政治背景下展望未来时,他们看起来不那么近视.
- 这种减少的前性近视意味着有可能制定更具前性的政策.
- 需要进一步的研究来证实这些发现的可靠性,并探索它们对政策的影响.
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