2002年至2019年全球受热带气旋影响的人口概况
Renzhi Jing1,2, Sam Heft-Neal3, Daniel R Chavas4
1Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Nature
|December 20, 2023
概括
每年大约有5.6亿人受到热带气旋的影响, 暴露的人群往往更容易受到伤害和老龄化,强调需要更好的风险评估和缓解策略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 公共卫生
- 人口统计
背景情况:
- 热带气旋对全球人口产生重大影响,
- 评估人口的脆弱性对于了解和减轻热带气旋带来的健康风险至关重要.
- 现有的暴露估计通常是区域性的,不考虑社会经济脆弱性.
研究的目的:
- 创建2002年至2019年受热带气旋影响的全球人口概况.
- 分析受影响群体的人口变化和社会经济脆弱性.
- 根据热带气旋的减缓策略和全球风险评估.
主要方法:
- 将空间分辨的年度人口数据与热带气旋风场估计相结合.
- 分析了2002年至2019年的全球热带气旋暴露模式.
- 评估受影响人口的人口变化 (年龄分布) 和社会经济地位.
主要成果:
- 估计每年有5.6亿人受到热带气旋的影响.
- 在研究期间,所有气旋强度的人数都增加了.
- 暴露人口呈现老龄化趋势,在社会经济上处于较为贫困状态,特别是那些面临更强烈风暴的人群.
结论:
- 全球热带气旋影响着大量且不断增长的人口,其脆弱性越来越大.
- 人口向老年人口的转变和受影响群体的社会经济贫困需要有针对性的干预措施.
- 描述暴露模式和脆弱性是制定有效的缓解策略和管理未来风险的关键.
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