临床医生通过评估方法预测生存的准确性有多高?
Yusuke Hiratsuka1, Sang-Yeon Suh2, Seok Joon Yoon3
1Department of Palliative Medicine, Takeda General Hospital, Aizuwakamatsu, Japan; Department of Palliative Medicine, Tohoku University School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan.
Annals of palliative medicine
|December 21, 2023
概括
临床医生对晚期癌症患者的生存预测因评估方法而异,准确率约为30%. 这凸显了广泛生存估计的必要性,并表明临床医生的生存预测可以帮助风险分层.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 抚慰性护理是一种缓解性护理.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 没有标准化的方法来评估临床医生的生存预测 (CPS) 的准确性.
- 之前的研究没有比较使用相同数据集的不同评估方法的CPS准确性.
- 这项研究解决了在晚期癌症患者中使用各种统计方法检查CPS准确性的需要.
研究的目的:
- 用不同的统计方法比较临床医生的生存预测 (CPS) 的准确性.
- 为了评估CPS在患有晚期癌症的患者中的准确性.
- 为临床实践提供有关息治疗中生存预后的信息.
主要方法:
- 国际多中心前性队列研究的二次分析.
- 包括来自日本,韩国和台湾的息治疗单位 (PCU) 新入院的晚期癌症患者.
- 使用分布,AUROC和"天" (≤7) 和"周" (≤30) 类别的实际生存 (AS) 估计值的±33%的CPS准确度的评估.
主要成果:
- 分析了来自37个PCU的2571名患者.
- 实际生存 (AS) 分布在"天"类别中超过临床医生的生存预测 (CPS),而"周"类别则相反.
- 接收机运行特征曲线 (AUROCs) 下的面积超过了这两个类别的80%的歧视.
- 在AS的±33%内的精确CPS在"天"和"周"类别中约为30%.
结论:
- 在分布,AUROC和AS比较方法中观察到CPS准确度的显著差异 (30-80%).
- 在AS比较的低准确性表明,临床医生应该提供广泛的生存时间估计.
- 临床医生的生存预测 (CPS) 证明了在晚期癌症患者中对风险分层的有效歧视和潜在实用性.
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