带有时间延迟的冲动载体传播疾病模型的全球动态
1School of Mathematical Sciences, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China.
Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
|December 21, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了带有载体除的载体传播疾病模型. 基本的复制数 ($ \mathcal{R}_0 $) 决定了疾病的持续性或灭绝,模拟证实了分析结果.
科学领域:
- 数学流行病学数学流行病学
- 疾病建模 疾病建模
- 载体传播疾病 载体传播疾病
背景情况:
- 媒介性疾病给公共卫生带来了重大挑战.
- 冲动杀是一种对载体种群的控制策略.
- 时间延迟可能会影响疾病的动态.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究一个时间延迟的载体传播疾病模型,结合了冲动的载体除.
- 根据基本复制数 ($ \mathcal{R}_0 $) 来分析值动态.
- 通过数值模拟来验证分析结果.
主要方法:
- 对时间延迟的载体传播疾病的数学模型的开发.
- 介绍和分析基本的复制数 ($ \mathcal{R}_0 $).
- 统一持久理论对离散时间半流的应用.
主要成果:
- 建立了R和疾病动态之间的关系:如果R<1$,则灭绝,如果R>1$,则持久.
- 证明了 $ \mathcal{R}_0 $ 作为值参数的关键作用.
- 数字模拟证实了有关疾病持续性和灭绝的分析预测.
结论:
- 基本的繁殖数 ($ \mathcal{R}_0 $) 是控制这种载体传播疾病的关键决定因素.
- 冲动除策略,当由R0$告知时,可以有效地控制疾病的传播.
- 该模型为了解和预测特定控制措施下的疾病动态提供了一个框架.
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