现在预测和预测季节性流感流行病 - 中国,2022-2023年
Zhanwei Du1,2, Zengyang Shao2, Xiao Zhang2
1WHO Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
China CDC weekly
|December 21, 2023
概括
2023年,季节性流感在中国复发,导致大量住院治疗. 数学模型预测了大量的感染率,而这一波持续到7月.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
背景情况:
- 季节性流感在2023年2月在中国重新爆发,导致大量住院治疗.
- 放宽COVID-19制措施可能导致急性呼吸道感染在2022/2023冬季增加.
研究的目的:
- 在COVID-19大流行之前,重建中国季节性流感发病率.
- 用数学模型预测2023年3月至9月在中国的流感活动.
主要方法:
- 利用数学模型结合流感样疾病 (ILI) 数据.
- 重建了大流行前 (2015-2019) 的流感发病率.
- 预测中国北部和南部的流行病后 (2023) 流感活动.
主要成果:
- 在2022-2023赛季开始时,估计有效繁殖数 (R ) 在中国北部约为1.08,在中国南部约为1.10.
- 估计2023年波的感染攻击率为中国北部的18.51%,中国南部的28.30%.
结论:
- 2023年春季的季节性流感浪潮在中国持续到7月.
- 这一浪潮感染了相当一部分人口,突出了其对公共卫生的影响.
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