人口增长和人口减少的最佳势头
Gustav Feichtinger1, Stefan Wrzaczek2
1Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OeAW, University of Vienna), Austria; Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics (Research unit VADOR), Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria.
Theoretical population biology
|December 21, 2023
概括
人口动力,由过去的高生育率引起,意味着即使生育率下降,人口也会继续增长. 这项研究模拟了降低生育率的时间,以管理未来的人口规模.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
背景情况:
- 由年龄结构驱动的人口势头,尽管生育率下降,但导致人口增长.
- 过去的高生育率创造了大量的潜在父母队伍,使增长延续下去.
- 延迟的生育率下降加剧了人口势头和未来的人口规模.
研究的目的:
- 分析降低生育率的最佳时间和规模,以管理人口势头.
- 调查支持生育主义者/反对生育主义者的政策与人口势头之间的权衡.
- 在分布式参数控制框架下建模人口动态.
主要方法:
- 用麦肯德里克-·福斯特的偏微分方程来计算年龄结构的人口.
- 应用了庞特里亚金最大原则的扩展,以实现最佳控制.
- 建模了政策成本与人口势头之间的时间间的权衡.
主要成果:
- 单调的适应努力净生殖率,凸的下降/凸的增加取决于初始速度.
- 当种群规模保持稳定时观察到的振荡力度和繁殖率.
- 确定了影响生育率下降和人口发展势头的关键因素.
结论:
- 降低生育率的时间和数量显著影响未来的人口规模.
- 最佳的控制策略可以减轻人口势头的影响.
- 数学建模为管理人口增长动态提供了洞察力.
相关概念视频
Conservation of Declining Populations
9.6K
Conservation of declining population focuses on ways of detecting, diagnosing, and halting a population decline. The approach uses methods to prevent populations from going extinct.
9.6K
Life Histories
17.9K
Overview
17.9K
Energy Budgets
9.2K
Organisms must balance energy intake with the energy required for growth, maintenance and reproduction. These trade-offs result in a variety of survivorship and reproductive strategies, including semelparity and iteroparity. Semelparous species, like annual plants, have only one reproductive episode in their lifetimes and consequently have short lifespans. Iteroparous species, by contrast, have many reproductive events during their lifetimes but have relatively few offspring. These two...
9.2K
Impulse-Momentum Theorem
11.8K
The total change in the motion of an object is proportional to the total force vector acting on it and the time over which it acts. This product is called impulse, a vector quantity with the same direction as the total force acting on the object.
By writing Newton's second law of motion in terms of the momentum of an object and the external force acting on it, and simultaneously using the definition of the impulse vector, it can be shown that the total impulse on an object is equal to its...
By writing Newton's second law of motion in terms of the momentum of an object and the external force acting on it, and simultaneously using the definition of the impulse vector, it can be shown that the total impulse on an object is equal to its...
11.8K
Conservation of Linear Momentum for a System of Particles
228
In the dynamic realm of billiards, a fascinating interplay of forces governs the motion of cue balls and stationary balls. When the cue ball collides with a stationary ball, linear momentum is exchanged. The cue ball imparts a fraction of its linear momentum to the stationary ball, causing the cue ball to decelerate while initiating the motion of the stationary ball.
The impulsive force at play during this interaction is of extremely short duration, rendering its impulse negligible. When...
The impulsive force at play during this interaction is of extremely short duration, rendering its impulse negligible. When...
228
Conservation of Small Populations
13.1K
Small population sizes put a species at extreme risk of extinction due to a lack of variation, and a consequent decrease in adaptability. This weakens the chances of survival under pressures such as climate change, competition from other species, or new diseases. Large populations are more likely to survive pressures such as these, as such populations are more likely to harbor individuals that have genetic variants that are adaptive under new stresses. Small populations are much less...
13.1K


