随机预测可变小数据作为分析网络流行病早期阶段的基础
Viacheslav Kovtun1, Krzysztof Grochla2, Vyacheslav Kharchenko3
1Institute of Theoretical and Applied Informatics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Gliwice, Poland. kovtun_v_v@vntu.edu.ua.
Scientific reports
|December 21, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的随机概念,用于使用香农和微分方程预测网络流行病. 该方法有效地预测了网络威胁,即使数据有限,也能及早预测,优于现有的数值预测技术.
科学领域:
- 网络安全 网络安全
- 信息安全 信息安全
- 随机模型建模 随机模型建模
背景情况:
- 现代网络安全依赖于安全信息和事件管理 (SIEM) 进行威胁检测.
- 像ISO 27001和NIST SP 800-61/83这样的现有标准难以跟上不断变化的网络威胁.
- 预测网络流行病对于主动防御策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 利用有限的经验数据开发一种用于早期网络流行病预测的方法.
- 为描述与网络威胁演变相关的可变小数据提出一个随机概念.
- 提高网络安全系统的预测能力,超出当前标准.
主要方法:
- 利用香农作为描述小数据的基础.
- 使用带有随机特征参数的线性微分方程 (生成率,死亡率,可变性).
- 制定一个任务,以找到最大的最佳概率分布密度.
主要成果:
- 介绍了一种用于早期预测网络流行病的实用方法.
- 分析表达式用于估计随机参数的概率分布密度.
- 拟议的方法使用最佳概率分布生成特征参数的轨迹.
结论:
- 随机概念为预测网络流行病提供了一种灵活可靠的方法.
- 该方法与传统的数字序列预测相比,显示出更高的性能.
- 这项研究有助于推进针对新出现的威胁采取积极的网络安全措施.
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