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模拟城市洪水风险管理对社会不平等的影响
Simon Moulds1, Wouter Buytaert1, Michael R Templeton1
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK.
概括
减少非正式城市社区对洪水的脆弱性是减少社会不平等和促进经济增长的关键. 有利于穷人的城市规划对于在非正式定居点有效管理洪水风险至关重要.
科学领域:
- 城市规划和发展.
- 减少灾害风险 减少灾害风险
- 社会水文学的社会水文学.
背景情况:
- 城市人口面临异质的洪水暴露,不成比例地影响穷人.
- 发展中国家的快速城市化凸显了有计划和非正式定居点之间的差异,这些定居点往往位于易受洪水侵袭的土地上.
- 在非正式定居点管理洪水风险是复杂的,并可能加剧社会不平等.
研究的目的:
- 为分层城市社会 (计划与非正式定居点) 调整社会水文模型.
- 探索洪水风险管理与社会不平等之间的关系.
- 确定影响各种城市环境中洪水风险管理结果的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 现有社会水文模型的调整,包括计划和非正式的定居点.
- 在风险降低和灾难恢复场景的基础上构建了四个系统原型.
- 在洪水风险管理中对脆弱性,风险厌恶和洪水意识的敏感性分析.
主要成果:
- 减少非正式社区的脆弱性显著降低了社会不平等,并支持经济增长,即使高洪水暴露.
- 增加的风险厌恶会通过阻碍经济增长,对非正式社区产生负面影响.
- 洪水风险管理策略必须考虑非正式定居点的具体动态.
结论:
- 有利于穷人的城市治理和规划对于有效的洪水风险管理至关重要.
- 承认非正式社区的永久性对于可持续的城市发展和抗灾能力至关重要.
- 需要采用综合方法来应对快速城市化地区的洪水风险和社会不平等问题.
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