由于2022年在中国出现强烈的寒流,对死亡风险的评估
Wanci Wang1, Yuxia Ma1, Pengpeng Qin1
1College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China.
Frontiers in public health
|December 22, 2023
概括
中国的极端寒冷时期对公众健康构成重大威胁. 最近的一次寒流导致2.75%的过度死亡风险,导致超过369,000人死亡,南部地区受到了不成比例的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候变化影响 气候变化影响
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 极低温事件或寒冷时期是由于气候变暖而导致的全球公共卫生问题日益升级.
- 在中国多个省份的寒冷时期对死亡率的影响的研究仍然有限.
研究的目的:
- 量化与中国严重的冬季寒冷相关的健康风险和死亡负担.
- 分析寒流强度背后的气象驱动因素.
- 调查与寒冷相关的死亡风险的空间分布.
主要方法:
- 利用了连接温度和死亡率的健康影响函数.
- 分析了循环场,以了解寒冷时期的发展.
- 量化过度死亡风险 (ER) 和累计过度死亡.
主要成果:
- 寒流是由一个加强的阻塞高压系统和相关的冷带驱动的.
- 观察到的平均过度死亡风险 (ER) 为2.75%,转化为369,056例累计过度死亡.
- 死亡风险在空间上不均,中国南部的死亡风险较高;山东省报告了最高的过剩死亡人数 (29,492).
结论:
- 寒冷时期在中国代表着相当大的死亡负担,突出了极端温度与公共健康之间的关键联系.
- 调查结果强调需要加强对寒流影响的理解和准备,以告知公共卫生政策.
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