热浪和寒流对肺炎风险的影响:一项全国性的研究
Junhui Wu1, Yao Wu2, Yiqun Wu3
1School of Nursing, Peking University, 38 Xueyuan Road, Hai Dian District, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, 100191, Beijing, China.
极端天气事件,如热浪和寒流,显著增加了肺炎住院的风险,特别是对妇女来说. 这项研究强调了气候变化对中国传染病的公共卫生影响.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 气候变化越来越多地与传染病有关.
- 极端温度 (热浪,寒流) 对肺炎风险的影响需要进一步调查.
- 全球范围内,肺炎对公共卫生构成重大负担.
研究的目的:
- 调查热浪,感冒和中国各地每日肺炎住院病例之间的关联.
- 量化与不同强度和持续时间的极端温度相关的肺炎风险.
- 确定弱势群体,特别是检查对妇女的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用国家医疗保险数据库,涵盖2014-2017年2亿8000万受益人.
- 根据温度强度和持续时间值,定义热浪和寒流.
- 采用准-Poisson通用线性模型与分布式滞后非线性模型来分析关联.
主要成果:
- 轻度感冒 (3天,第二百分位) 显示肺炎住院患者的峰值相对风险 (RR) 为1.69.
- 极长的热浪 (4天,第98个百分点) 也呈现出1.69的峰值RR.
- 无论是热浪还是寒冷,都对女性产生了更大的不利影响.
结论:
- 暴露在热浪和寒冷中显著与肺炎住院病例的增加有关.
- 妇女似乎是一个特别容易受到这些与气候有关的健康影响的人口.
- 这项研究提供了关键的国家级证据,证明了极端温度对中国肺炎风险的影响,为与气候变化适应相关的公共卫生战略提供了信息.
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