推断的违约率作为保加利亚银行体系中的信用风险指标
1Faculty of Applied Informatics and Statistics, University of National and World Economy, 1700 Sofia, Bulgaria.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|December 23, 2023
概括
推断的违约率 (IRD) 是使用宏观经济因素预测银行违约风险的新指标. 这种方法为银行集团之间的信用风险比较提供了一个新的视角.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 金融 金融 金融 金融 金融
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 推断的违约率 (IRD) 最初是作为违约风险指标开发的,使用来自保加利亚国家银行的数据.
- 现有的违约风险评估方法需要加强银行系统层面的分析.
研究的目的:
- 为预测银行集团和银行系统层面的IRD方法提供详细的理由.
- 通过时间序列分析提供支持IRD预测方法的经验证据.
- 为了证明IRD在比较不同银行集团的信用风险方面的实用性.
主要方法:
- 基于宏观经济因素的时间序列分析用于IRD预测.
- 模型估计与保加利亚法规和IFRS 9标准保持一致.
主要成果:
- 该研究提出了一种可靠的方法来预测推断的违约率 (IRD).
- 经验证据支持IRD预测模型的有效性.
- 在银行间集团信用风险比较中,IRD 证明是有价值的.
结论:
- 拟议的IRD预测模型符合当前的财务法规和会计准则.
- 实践者可以利用这些模型来预测每月的违约概率.
- 这些模型有助于有效监测和管理银行业内的信用风险.
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