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基于空间地质城市模型的管理方法来建模COVID-19病毒的不同菌株

Yaroslav Vyklyuk¹, Denys Nevinskyi², Valentyna Chopyak³

¹Department of Artificial Intelligence, Lviv Polytechnic National University, 79000 Lviv, Ukraine.

|December 23, 2023

概括

这种增强的GeoCity模型模拟了COVID-19的传播,揭示了工作场所和运输作为关键传播地点. 每天的时间表显著影响病毒动态,不同的菌株通过不同的种群传播.

科学领域:

计算流行病学计算流行病学
基于代理的建模模型.
公共卫生模拟

背景情况:

现有的城市模型缺乏详细的人口动态.
了解COVID-19的传播需要现实的代理行为.
之前的 GeoCity 模型需要对与健康相关的模拟进行增强.

研究的目的:

用详细的代理特征 (年龄,时间表,健康状况) 来修改 GeoCity 模型.
模拟三种严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 菌株的传播.
分析日常时间表和代理类型对病毒传播动态的影响.

主要方法:

基于代理的建模使用修改后的GeoCity框架.
纳入人口年龄结构,日常安排 (周日/周末) 和健康状况.
模拟SARS-CoV-2在不同菌株 (如Omicron,Alpha) 的传播.

主要成果:

SARS-CoV-2 的传播主要通过工作场所和运输接触发生.
儿童 (学龄儿童,学龄前儿童) 是流行病的接收者,而不是发起者.
每日时间表的变化 (工作日与周末) 影响病毒传播动态.
高传染性菌株 (Omicron) 在公共交通中传播得更快.
较少传染性菌株 (阿尔法) 更多地通过工作和教育接触传播.
免疫能力强的个体是快速菌株的关键来源;免疫能力低下的 (孕妇) 是缓慢菌株的关键来源.

结论:

增强的 GeoCity 模型提供了城市病毒传播的现实模拟.
个人的日常时间表是影响SARS-CoV-2传播模式的关键因素.
考虑到菌株特征和接触模式的有针对性的干预措施对于控制至关重要.

关键词:

在 COVID-19 疫情中,地理地理空间模拟模型模型地理物体是一个地理物体.模拟建模的模型.多代理系统是多代理系统.实时模拟真实时间模拟

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