评估驾驶员在工作区的行为:一个离散的持续时间方法来预测超速
Diwas Thapa1, Sabyasachee Mishra1, Asad Khattak2
1Department of Civil Engineering, University of Memphis, 3815 Central Avenue, Memphis, TN 38152, United States.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|December 23, 2023
概括
预测工作区的超速是提高安全性的关键. 一个新的模型预测了超速事件,帮助机构实施主动措施,减少工人和司机的撞车事故.
科学领域:
- 交通安全工程 交通安全工程
- 运输科学 运输科学
- 预测分析是一种预测分析.
背景情况:
- 在工作区的高速增大了事故发生的可能性和严重程度.
- 降低速度限制的目的是改善交通流动,但可能导致突然的速度变化,增加后端撞车风险.
- 司机不遵守工作区速度限制是持续存在的安全挑战.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证基于持续时间的预测框架,用于预测高速公路工程区的超速事件.
- 确定影响工作区内超速行为的关键预测因素.
- 加强工作区的积极安全措施和执法策略.
主要方法:
- 利用基于持续时间的预测框架来预测超速事件.
- 确定了包括可见性,车道数量, posted速度限制,段长,速度变化和行程时间指数在内的重要预测因素.
- 基于连续超速事件之间持续时间的验证模型准确性.
主要成果:
- 车道数量, posted速度限制,和速度变化与超速正相关.
- 可见度,段长和行程时间指数与超速相对应.
- 对于更频繁的超速事件,模型的准确性更高,在5小时间隔内预测61%的实际事件.
结论:
- 基于持续时间的预测框架有效预测工作区的超速,特别是超速频繁发生的地方.
- 积极预测可以实现有针对性的速度强制执行,提高道路使用者和工作人员的工作区安全.
- 这种预测模型是机构在实时管理和减轻超速相关危险的宝贵工具.
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