COVID-19的死亡转移到撒哈拉以南非洲
Sosso Feindouno1, Jean-Louis Arcand2, Patrick Guillaumont1
1FERDI, Clermont Ferrand, France.
Social science & medicine (1982)
|December 23, 2023
概括
COVID-19封锁导致全球经济衰退,导致撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 的间接过度死亡率显著增加. 经济衰退导致了成千上万的额外死亡,特别是儿童,突出显示了增加抵御能力的必要性.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- COVID-19在全球迅速蔓延,导致中国和全球北方的封锁.
- 这些制措施引发了全球经济衰退,对全球南方,特别是撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 产生了重大经济影响.
- 非洲南部地区的经济衰退与贫困和死亡率的增加有关.
研究的目的:
- 量化撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 的间接死亡率,这是由于COVID-19封锁引发的全球经济衰退造成的.
- 为了将这种间接的过度死亡率与该地区直接归因于COVID-19的死亡率进行比较.
主要方法:
- 采用了三步分析: (i) 评估全球北方封锁对经济衰退的影响, (ii) 评估经济衰退对SSA收入的影响,以及 (iii) 确定SSA收入下降和死亡率之间的联系.
- 使用统计建模来估计过度死亡人数和死亡率变化.
主要成果:
- 全球北方的COVID-19封锁间接导致SSA在一年内估计有538,000至679,000人额外死亡.
- 这包括0-5岁儿童死亡的14万至17万7000例.
- 间接的过度死亡率代表了原始死亡率的6-7%增加和5岁以下死亡率的5-6%增加,超过SSA的直接COVID-19死亡人数.
结论:
- 由于COVID-19封锁引发的经济衰退对SSA死亡率的影响比大流行本身更为深远.
- 政策制定者必须解决因经济冲击而导致的间接过度死亡率.
- 提高SSA国家对外源性冲击 (如流行病及其经济后果) 的抵御能力,对于减轻贫困和过度死亡率至关重要.
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