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一种系统动态方法,用于模拟乳牛在热浪事件期间的热应激积累
R Cresci1, B Atamer Balkan2, L O Tedeschi3
1Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Sassari, 07100, Italy; University School for Advanced Studies IUSS Pavia, Pavia, 27100, Italy; Department of Animal Science, Texas A&M University, College Station TX 77843-2471, USA.
Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience
|December 23, 2023
概括
气候变化增加了奶牛的热应激 (HS),影响了奶产. 使用系统动力学的新模型准确地预测了HS对牛奶产量的影响,有助于识别热敏奶牛.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 动物科学动物科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在增加热浪事件,对乳牛生产率构成风险.
- 由于非线性动态和响应延迟,模拟乳牛对热应激 (HS) 的反应是复杂的.
研究的目的:
- 应用系统动力学方法来建模奶牛对HS的反应产量 (MY).
- 了解HS条件下的动物反应动态和系统延迟.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个因果循环图来识别反机制和动态假设.
- 使用库存和流量结构制定了一种定量模型.
- 校准模型参数使用农场MY数据和20头奶牛的温度湿度指数.
主要成果:
- 开发的HS模型准确地捕捉了20头母牛中的11头母牛的HS对奶产的影响 (MAE <5%,CCC >0.6,R2 >0.6).
- 鉴定了具有较低R2值的奶牛,这表明在模型的参数空间内具有耐热的行为.
- 个别奶牛的量化HS反应参数.
结论:
- 系统动力学模型有效量化了动物对HS的反应,并预测了热应激下MY.
- 该模型有助于农民区分热敏奶牛和耐热奶牛.
- 这种方法支持在热浪期间管理乳牛生产力的知情决策.
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