与环境化学物质相关的可解释机器学习模型的开发,以预测所有原因和特定原因死亡率:基于NHANESES的纵向研究
Siyu Duan1, Yafei Wu1, Junmin Zhu1
1Center for Aging and Health Research, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
Ecotoxicology and environmental safety
|December 24, 2023
概括
这项研究表明,机器学习模型可以使用环境化学物质暴露来预测死亡率. 某些化学物质,如和双A,与死亡风险有显著的关联.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 毒理学 毒理学 毒理学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 关于环境化学品对死亡率的预测价值的数据有限.
- 了解这些关联对于公共卫生和风险评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查43种环境化学物质与死亡之间的关联.
- 开发可解释的机器学习模型,用于使用这些化学品预测死亡率.
主要方法:
- 利用了国家健康和营养检查调查 (NHANES) 的1602名参与者的数据.
- 使用机器学习模型,包括CoxPH和Coxnet用于死亡率预测.
- 分析了血清/尿液化学水平与死亡结果之间的关联.
主要成果:
- 机器学习模型对所有原因,心血管疾病 (CVD) 和癌症死亡率表现出高的预测准确性.
- 尿中的甲基 (MP) 和2-二醇 (2-NAP) 与较低的全因死亡率有关.
- 血清 (Cd) 和尿路双A (BPA) 分别与全因和心血管疾病死亡率的增加有关.
结论:
- 环境化学物质可以对死亡率预测模型做出重大贡献,有时超过传统临床变量的影响.
- 可解释的机器学习模型可以识别与死亡风险相关的特定环境化学物质.
- 调查结果强调了环境化学物质监测对积极健康风险评估的潜力.
相关概念视频
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
43
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
43
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
371
Epidemiological data primarily involves information on specific populations' occurrence, distribution, and determinants of health and diseases. This data is crucial for understanding disease patterns and impacts, aiding public health decision-making and disease prevention strategies. The analysis of epidemiological data employs various statistical methods to interpret health-related data effectively. Here are some commonly used methods:
371
Introduction To Survival Analysis
243
Survival analysis is a statistical method used to study time-to-event data, where the "event" might represent outcomes like death, disease relapse, system failure, or recovery. A unique feature of survival data is censoring, which occurs when the event of interest has not been observed for some individuals during the study period. This requires specialized techniques to handle incomplete data effectively.
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time...
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time...
243
Comparing the Survival Analysis of Two or More Groups
195
Survival analysis is a cornerstone of medical research, used to evaluate the time until an event of interest occurs, such as death, disease recurrence, or recovery. Unlike standard statistical methods, survival analysis is particularly adept at handling censored data—instances where the event has not occurred for some participants by the end of the study or remains unobserved. To address these unique challenges, specialized techniques like the Kaplan-Meier estimator, log-rank test, and...
195
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Algorithms for Numerical Problem Solving
56
Mechanistic models play a crucial role in algorithms for numerical problem-solving, particularly in nonlinear mixed effects modeling (NMEM). These models aim to minimize specific objective functions by evaluating various parameter estimates, leading to the development of systematic algorithms. In some cases, linearization techniques approximate the model using linear equations.
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
56
Kaplan-Meier Approach
149
The Kaplan-Meier estimator is a non-parametric method used to estimate the survival function from time-to-event data. In medical research, it is frequently employed to measure the proportion of patients surviving for a certain period after treatment. This estimator is fundamental in analyzing time-to-event data, making it indispensable in clinical trials, epidemiological studies, and reliability engineering. By estimating survival probabilities, researchers can evaluate treatment effectiveness,...
149


