2020年至2035年美国吸烟导致的死亡率的新估计
Thuy T T Le1, David Méndez1, Kenneth E Warner1
1Department of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
疾病控制和预防中心 (CDC) 估计的每年吸烟导致的死亡人数 (SAD) 仍然有效. 更新的预测显示,SAD每年稳定在45万左右,然后在2030年左右开始逐渐下降.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 死亡率统计 死亡率统计
背景情况:
- 被广泛引用的疾病控制和预防中心 (CDC) 估计,美国每年有48万例吸烟导致的死亡 (SAD) 是基于2005-2009年的数据.
- 自从最初收集数据以来,成年人吸烟率 (40%) 显著下降,人口增长和人口老龄化.
研究的目的:
- 重新评估当前CDC对SAD估计的准确性.
- 根据最新的吸烟趋势和人口动态,预测未来每年的SAD到2035年.
主要方法:
- 利用经过验证的吸烟患病率和健康影响模型,估计了2005-2009年年度SAD和2020-2035年的预测数字.
- 数据收集时间从2005年到2020年,分析时间为2023年.
主要成果:
- 该研究在2005-2009年估计的420,000名第一手吸烟死亡人数与疾病预防控制中心的数据密切一致 (95.7%).
- 自2005-2009年以来,每年的SAD显示出适度增加,预计从2020年起将保持稳定在约45万,然后在2030年左右下降.
结论:
- 疾病预防控制中心对吸烟的年度死亡负担的估计被认为是有效的.
- 尽管人口发生了变化,但吸烟的显著减少预计将从2030年左右开始导致SADs的逐渐减少.
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