一个广泛适用的和强大的LightGBM - 人工神经网络预测模型,用于短期风力发电密度
Xiangrui Zeng1, Nibras Abdullah1,2, Baixue Liang1
1School of Computer Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, 11800, Malaysia.
Heliyon
|December 25, 2023
概括
这项研究开发了一种使用LightGBM和人工神经网络的新型风力发电密度预测模型. 该模型准确预测风能发电,改善电网稳定性并指导电力贸易.
科学领域:
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 在电网中的机器学习应用.
背景情况:
- 风能是重要的清洁能源,但其间歇性质对电网稳定性构成挑战.
- 精确的风力发电预测对于减轻波动和确保可靠的电力供应至关重要.
- 现有的预测模型往往忽略了风速和功率输出之间的非线性关系,并且受到数据范围的限制.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个强大的和通用的风力发电密度预测模型.
- 通过结合非线性动态和多样化的数据源来解决现有模型的局限性.
- 提高风力发电预测的准确性和可靠性,用于电网整合和电力交易.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种混合模型,将LightGBM用于特征提取和人工神经网络用于预测.
- 该模型采用了不需要气象测量设备的数据收集过程,确保了广泛的应用.
- 模型性能使用从2020年到2022年跨越六个不同地形的数据进行了验证.
主要成果:
- 开发的模型显示出高准确度,平均预测误差在71.68%的病例中低于2%,在82.188%的病例中低于6%.
- 该模型实现了0.9755的平均R平方值和0.9875.5的平均相关系数.
- 结果表明,在不同的地形和时间段中,性能和稳定性优越.
结论:
- 混合光GBM和人工神经网络模型有效地捕捉了风速和发电之间的非线性关系.
- 该模型的通用性,稳定性和稳定性使其成为现实世界风力发电预测的实用工具.
- 经过验证的准确性和性能提供了强有力的证据,证明该模型在指导电力贸易和加强电网管理方面的实用性.
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