在加拿大各省份消除型肝炎病毒的时间表
Jordan J Feld1, Marina B Klein2, Yasmine Rahal3
1Toronto Centre for Liver Disease, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Canadian liver journal
|December 25, 2023
概括
加拿大正在落后于消除型肝炎的目标. 三个省份需要增加年度治疗,以实现2030年目标,避免严重的健康和经济负担.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病流行病学 传染病流行病学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 慢性型肝炎病毒感染仍然是全球卫生挑战.
- 加拿大此前正准备实现世界卫生组织的消除目标.
- 最近加拿大各省C型肝炎诊断和治疗率的下降早于COVID-19大流行.
研究的目的:
- 评估每一个加拿大省份C型肝炎消除的预计时间表.
- 确定不同治疗和诊断趋势对消除目标的影响.
- 量化必要的年度处理和相关的经济负担,以实现消除.
主要方法:
- 之前开发的C型肝炎的疾病和经济负担模型与当前的加拿大数据进行了更新.
- 模拟了五种不同的情景,包括现状,年均下降10%和20%,年均增长10%,以及流行后的无复苏情景.
- 关键结果包括消除的年份,每年需要的治疗,以及每省预计的疾病和经济成本.
主要成果:
- 如果没有干预,曼尼托巴,安大略省和北克预计将错过2030年型肝炎消除目标.
- 这三个省份将分别需要540次,7700次和2800次额外的年度治疗,才能按计划消除.
- 在这些省份实现及时消除可能会避免170人死亡,并节省12.266亿加元的直接医疗费用.
结论:
- 在加拿大三个省份,包括两个人口最多的省份,C型肝炎的消除面临风险.
- 紧急实施加强预防,检测和治疗策略至关重要.
- 需要创新的框架来加速实现国家型肝炎消除目标的进展.
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