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将生态进化信息纳入物种分布模型,可以全面预测气候变化下的物种范围变化

Wen-Xun Lu¹, Zi-Zhao Wang¹, Xue-Ying Hu¹

¹State Key Laboratory of Protein and Plant Gene Research, School of Life Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.

The Science of the total environment

|December 25, 2023

概括

气候变化影响物种的范围. 将生态进化数据与物种分布模型 (SDM) 整合起来,可以改善对未来分布的预测,并有助于保护,特别是对于稀有物种.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
进化生物学进化生物学
保护生物学保护生物学

背景情况:

气候变化对物种分布,生态系统功能和生物多样性产生重大影响.
物种分布模型 (SDM) 对于预测物种对气候变化的反应至关重要.
标准的SDM可能会低估物种的气候耐受性,仅依靠当前的事件.

研究的目的:

开发和评估一个综合的框架,将生态进化数据与SDM结合起来,以进行全面的物种范围转移预测.
评估的差异化和进化速率在香 zawadskii物种复杂.
为了比较标准SDM和基因信息SDM的预测.

主要方法:

应用了一个新的框架,将生态进化数据和SDM整合到香 (Chrysanthemum zawadskii) 种群中.
研究了物种和物种内特定谱系之间的利基差异化和利基进化率.
在物种和谱系层面生成并比较标准SDM和遗传学信息SDM的预测.
重建了历史范围动态.

主要成果:

综合体内的物种和内物种血统表现出不同的利基差异化和利基进化速度.
对于具有内部特异化的物种,谱系级SDM提供了比物种级模型更现实的预测.
与标准的SDM相比,基因基因知情的SDM预测了更广泛的潜在分布和更完整的环境包裹.
各种物种的范围动态因其利基进化速率而异.

结论:

综合框架增强了对物种对气候变化的反应的理解.
遗传学信息的SDM提供了对潜在物种分布的更准确的预测.
这种方法支持有针对性的保护战略,特别是针对面临气候变化的稀有和脆弱物种.

关键词:

气候变化气候变化气候变化生态进化的信息.一个基本的利基市场.多时间校准.种类分布模型是一种物种分布模型.

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