使用可解释的CNN深度学习模型,预测中国土地对沉降危险的易感性
Kai Liu1, Jianxin Zhang2, Junfei Liu2
1School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, 19 Xinjiekou Wai Ave., Beijing 100875, China; Joint International Research Laboratory of Catastrophe Simulation and Systemic Risk Governance, Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai, Zhuhai 519087, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, China.
The Science of the total environment
|December 25, 2023
概括
中国的土地沉降易感性受到人口,GDP和地下水变化的重大影响. 未来的预测表明,高风险地区将扩大,使人口和基础设施暴露于这种地缘环境危害中.
科学领域:
- 地质科学 地质科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地理危险 地区性危险
背景情况:
- 土地沉降是一个关键的全球地缘环境危险,需要准确的易感性评估.
- 了解土地沉降危险易感性 (LSHS) 的驱动因素和空间分布对于预防和减轻灾害至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个可解释的模型,用于评估中国的土地沉降危险易感性 (LSHS).
- 识别和排名影响LSHS的关键自然和人为因素.
- 预测未来的LSHS和相关的人口和基础设施暴露.
主要方法:
- 使用可解释卷积神经网络 (CNN) 进行LSHS建模.
- 采用了SHapley添加式解释 (SHAP) 来解释CNN模型的特征贡献.
- 分析了历史 (2004-2016) 和预测的未来 (21世纪中后期) LSHS.
主要成果:
- 美国有线电视新闻 (CNN) 模型表现出高精度 (AUC=0.9939,F1分数=0.9566).
- 人口,GDP和地下水储存变化被确定为中国LSHS的主要驱动因素.
- 预计高和非常高的LSHS地区将大幅扩大,对人口和基础设施的暴露将增加.
结论:
- 该研究成功地为中国建立了一个可解释的LSHS模型,突出了关键影响因素.
- 这些发现强调了土地沉降的威胁日益加剧,需要采取积极的适应战略.
- 这项研究提供了重要的数据,以告知区域政策,以减轻沉降造成的损害.
相关概念视频
01:19Survival Tree
87
Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
87
01:17Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
50
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
50
01:19Design Example: Maintaining Level of an Embankment
69
Constructing a roadway embankment over uneven terrain requires precise leveling to ensure stability and proper drainage. Surveyors use a leveling instrument and staff to calculate ground elevations and determine the required fill material at each point along the embankment alignment.The process begins by positioning a leveling instrument near a benchmark with a known elevation. A backsight reading establishes the instrument height, which serves as a reference for subsequent measurements. A...
69