机器学习驱动的COVID-19住院和死亡的疾病风险评分的开发:瑞典和挪威基于登记册的研究
Saeed Shakibfar1,2, Jing Zhao3,4,5, Huiqi Li5
1Department of Drug Design and Pharmacology, Pharmacovigilance Research Center, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Frontiers in public health
|December 26, 2023
概括
在挪威,发达疾病风险评分适度预测了COVID-19死亡率,但预测住院治疗不好. 这一分数有助于评估SARS-CoV-2感染患者的严重结果.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 开发准确的风险预测工具对于管理COVID-19 (冠状病毒疾病2019) 至关重要.
- 现有的模型可能无法在不同的国家医疗保健系统中很好地泛化.
研究的目的:
- 创建和验证疾病风险评分,以预测COVID-19住院和死亡率.
- 评估分数在瑞典和挪威的外部表现.
主要方法:
- 使用了来自瑞典和挪威的链接国家卫生登记处数据.
- 分析了一组被证实感染SARS-CoV-2的瑞典人.
- 风险因素包括人口统计,并发病症和治疗方法被考虑在得分的发展.
- 外部验证使用挪威COVID-19数据进行.
主要成果:
- 在瑞典,开发的风险得分显示了COVID-19死亡率 (AUC 0.72) 的适度预测能力.
- 在挪威的外部验证中,得分显示出死亡率的良好预测 (AUC 0.74).
- 住院预测性能不那么强大,瑞典的AUC为0.70,挪威的AUC为0.47.
结论:
- 疾病风险得分显示了预测COVID-19死亡率的潜力.
- 在医院住院预测中得分的实用性需要进一步改进,特别是对于外部验证.
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