预测每日COVID-19病例的梯度增强回归树和其他方法:来自美国城市的证据
Anindya Sen1, Nathaniel T Stevens2, N Ken Tran3
1Department of Economics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
Frontiers in public health
|December 26, 2023
概括
渐变增强回归树 (GBRT) 在美国城市的短期COVID-19病例预测中通常优于其他模型. 机器学习模型对地方一级的流行病监测和资源分配有希望.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 与国家一级预测相比,城市一级的COVID-19病例预测存在有限的研究.
- 准确的当地预测对于有效的公共卫生干预和资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估各种统计预测模型的性能,以预测25个美国大都会统计区 (MSA) 的每日COVID-19病例.
- 在不同的建模方法中比较7天和28天前的预测准确度.
主要方法:
- 采用了渐变增强回归树 (GBRT),线性混合效应 (LME),易感染-恢复 (SIR) 和季节性自回归集成移动平均线 (SARIMA) 模型.
- 利用了25个MSA的2020年11月至2021年3月的每日COVID-19病例数据.
- 使用中位数绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 在2020年11月至12月和2021年1月期间,GBRT模型在7天和28天的时间内显示了大多数MSA的较低的MAPE值,这比2020年11月至12月和2021年1月的COVID-19病例预测要早.
- GBRT和SARIMA模型显示2021年2月预测的准确性降低.
- 在2021年3月的28天前预测中,SARIMA略高于GBRT的表现.
结论:
- 基本的机器学习模型,如GBRT,可以在当地 (MSA) 层面提供相对准确的短期COVID-19预测.
- 这些发现支持了ML模型对当地公共卫生政策,资源分配和流行病监测的有用性.
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