到2030年,202个国家的健康预期寿命:贝叶斯模型整体模型的预测
Jiaxin Cai1, Weiwei Hu1, Yuhui Yang1
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
Journal of global health
|December 26, 2023
概括
预计到2030年,全球健康预期寿命 (HLE) 将增加,其中新加坡处于领先地位. 然而,差异仍然存在,特别是在非洲国家,需要有针对性的卫生干预措施.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 准确的健康预期寿命 (HLE) 预测对于未来的社会和医疗服务规划至关重要.
- 之前的研究通常依赖于单个模型,限制了全面的未来HLE洞察力.
- 这项研究采用了一种集成建模方法,用于在202个国家/地区进行增强的HLE预测.
研究的目的:
- 预测202个国家/地区的未来健康预期寿命 (HLE),使用整体建模技术.
- 确定预计HLE最高和最低的国家,并分析性别差异的趋势.
- 根据未来的HLE场景,为公共卫生战略和资源分配提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用全球疾病负担 (GBD) 数据 (1990-2019) 针对特定年龄性别的HLE和社会人口统计指数 (SDI).
- 实现了一个概率贝叶斯集团模型,包括21个预测模型.
- 预计2030年202个国家/地区的HLE.
主要成果:
- 预计HLE将在所有202个国家增加,男性超过81岁,女性超过82.4岁的概率.
- 预计到2030年,新加坡的男性和女性均将拥有最高的HLE.
- 预计到2030年,HLE中的女性优势将在117个国家下降,特别是在高SDI和欧洲国家.
结论:
- 全球HLE预计将增加,但对于面临肥胖和传染病等挑战的地区,需要有针对性的干预措施.
- 经济发展和医疗保健的改善可以有助于减轻,甚至可能消除HLE现有的性别差距.
- 持续监测和先进建模对于有效的公共卫生政策和管理至关重要.
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