在干旱地区观察到的湿度趋势与气候模型相矛盾
Isla R Simpson1, Karen A McKinnon2,3,4, Daniel Kennedy1,5
1Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305.
概括
温室气体驱动的气候变化对干旱地区构成风险. 观察到的大气水蒸气趋势与气候模型相矛盾,这表明未来预测可能存在问题.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 干旱和半干旱地区面临温室气体引起的水气候变化的重大风险.
- 气候模型对于预测未来的水气候场景和适应规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 识别和分析干旱和半干旱地区观察和基于模型的历史水气候趋势之间的差异.
- 评估这些差异对未来水气候预测的影响.
主要方法:
- 从观测记录中分析历史水气候数据.
- 观察到的趋势与过去四十年多种气候模型的模拟进行比较.
- 确定表现出最显著差异的地区,包括干旱/半干旱地区和干旱期间潮湿地区.
主要成果:
- 气候模型始终预测干旱/半干旱地区大气水蒸气的增加,这是由温暖的大气增加的水容量所推动的.
- 观测数据不支持这些地区大气中的水蒸气预计增加.
- 这种差异表明,模型高估了相对于实际大气需求的水分可用性.
结论:
- 在干旱和半干旱地区理解和建模水气候方面存在重大差距.
- 这种差异可能导致对未来水气候的预测不准确,可能会影响对火灾危险等风险的评估.
- 需要进一步的研究来提高气候模型对这些脆弱地区的准确性.
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