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气候政策与经济不确定性之间的量子关系:来自G7国家的证据

Khaled Mokni¹, Leila Hedhili Zaier², Manel Youssef³

¹Higher Institute of Transport and Logistics of Sousse, University of Sousse, Tunisia; LaREMFIQ Laboratory, University of Sousse, Tunisia.

Journal of environmental management

|December 26, 2023

概括

气候政策不确定性 (CPU) 和经济政策不确定性 (EPU) 在G7国家之间高度相互联系. 经济政策不确定性受到气候政策不确定性的重大影响,尤其是在极端经济条件下.

科学领域:

环境经济学环境经济学
宏观经济学宏观经济学
政策分析政策分析

背景情况:

经济政策不确定性 (EPU) 和气候政策不确定性 (CPU) 是影响全球市场的重要因素.
了解这些不确定性之间的传递机制对于经济稳定和气候行动至关重要.

研究的目的:

调查G7国家气候政策不确定性 (CPU) 和经济政策不确定性 (EPU) 之间的动态关系和溢出效应.
分析这些不确定性在不同层次的经济条件中如何相互作用.

主要方法:

使用基于量子的向量自回归 (Q-VAR) 模型.
分析了2000年至2021年G7国家数据.

主要成果:

在CPU和EPU之间发现了显著的相互联系,特别是在极端的量子级别.
观察到,CPU通常是不确定性冲击的净接收器,而EPU的作用 (接收器/发射器) 是不同的.
证明在经济不确定性高或低的时期,EPU受到CPU冲击的强烈影响.

结论:

将气候考虑纳入经济规划的政策整合对于可持续增长至关重要.
政府应将气候因素纳入财政政策和监管框架,以减轻气候变化影响.

关键词:

气候政策的不确定性气候政策的不确定性经济政策的不确定性经济政策的不确定性七国集团国家G7国家量子的连接性量子的连接性

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