关于日本1953年至2022年肺结核病例的年龄周期队列分析
Masaki Ota1, Susumu Hirao1, Kazuhiro Uchimura2
1Division of Technical Assistance to Tuberculosis Programmes, Research Institute of Tuberculosis, Tokyo, Japan.
International journal of mycobacteriology
|December 27, 2023
概括
根据年龄段的队列分析显示,结核病 (TB) 风险在年轻成年人中达到顶峰. 日本结核病发病率的下降受到20世纪50年代和70年代引入的抗结核药物的显著影响.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 医学统计 医学统计
背景情况:
- 结核病 (TB) 发病率趋势受到年龄,出生年份和日历时期的影响.
- 尽管有70年的结核病监测数据,但日本没有先前的年龄周期队列 (APC) 分析.
研究的目的:
- 通过70年的国家监测数据,进行日本结核病的第一个APC分析.
- 将结核病发病率的长期趋势分为年龄,出生队列和日历周期效应.
主要方法:
- 利用了1953年至2022年的全国结核病通知数据.
- 应用了日志转换线性模型用于年龄-周期-队列 (APC) 分析.
主要成果:
- 从1955年到2022年,结核病通报率大幅下降了99%,从1955年到2022年,结核病通报率大幅下降了99%.
- 结核病风险在年轻人 (20-29岁) 中达到峰值,并且随着年龄的增长而下降.
- 从1913年到1963年,在出生队伍周围观察到结核病风险的显著变化,期间效应在20世纪50年代末/60年代初达到顶峰.
结论:
- 年轻的成年人始终表现出结核病疾病风险的高峰.
- 在20世纪50年代和70年代推出抗结核病药物,对日本的结核病流行病学产生了深刻的影响.
- 这项研究为日本结核病的长期动态提供了关键的见解.
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