表面臭氧的时空模式及其对中国农业生产力的影响

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Xiaoguang Chen¹, Jing Gao¹, Luoye Chen²

¹Research Institute of Economics and Management, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 610074 Chengdu, China.

|December 28, 2023

概括

表面臭氧 (O3) 造成的空气污染大大降低了中国的农业生产力. 将臭氧水平降低至世卫组织标准,可以将农业生产率提高60%,抵消气候变化的影响.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
农业经济学农业经济学
大气化学大气化学

背景情况:

近几十年来,全球农业生产率的增长放缓了.
确定这种减速的驱动因素对于粮食安全至关重要.

研究的目的:

调查空气污染,特别是表面臭氧 (O3) 与中国农业总因子生产率 (TFP) 之间的联系.
量化O3污染对TFP的影响,并预测减少污染带来的潜在收益.

主要方法:

从2002年到2019年,利用机器学习算法来估计高分辨率表面O3度.
将O3的估计与评估TFP变化的统计模型相结合.

主要成果:

2002年至2019年间,中国的表面O3污染加剧.
在2002-2015年期间,增加的O3污染使农业TFP减少了18%.
满足世卫组织空气质量标准可以使农业TFP增加60%.

结论:

表面臭氧是中国农业生产率下降的一个重要驱动因素.
减少O3污染为提高农业TFP提供了巨大的机会.
减轻O3可以抵消气候变化所造成的生产力损失.

关键词:

中国中国中国中国.农业生产率农业生产率空气污染空气污染基于卫星的O3估计.

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