复杂性,致命性和邪恶的想象力:模拟非国家行为者的攻击手段
1The Miriam Hospital, Division of Infectious Diseases, and the Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA.
概括
国家行为者专注于攻击的复杂性,而非国家行为者利用低复杂性,高致命性战术. 了解非国家参与者创新对于有效的国家安全和治理至关重要.
科学领域:
- 安全研究 安全研究
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 国际关系 国际关系
背景情况:
- 传统上,国家行为者认为攻击的致命性和复杂性之间存在线性关系.
- 国家投资于开发复杂,致命的手段,并对对手施加监管复杂性.
- 非国家行为体,如恐怖分子,在高致命性,低复杂性空间中运作.
研究的目的:
- 分析国家和非国家行为者在攻击复杂性和致命性方面的战略分歧.
- 探索非国家行为者如何创造性地规避国家强加的安全措施.
- 突出国家在防御不可预测,低复杂性攻击时所面临的挑战.
主要方法:
- 国家安全学说和非国家行为者战略的概念分析.
- 检查恐怖袭击的历史和当代例子 (例如汽车炸弹,9/11).
- 讨论新出现的威胁,例如对平民目标的无人机武器.
主要成果:
- 非国家行为者成功地使用"想象力",低复杂性,高致命性攻击,国家往往无法预见.
- 车辆冲撞和小武器袭击群众等攻击表明了这种操作范式.
- 防止低复杂性攻击的责任往往落在缺乏资源的地方政府身上.
结论:
- 国家安全需要深入了解非国家行为者的"歪曲的想象力"和行动空间.
- 新出现的威胁,如无人机袭击,表明非国家行为者战术的演变.
- 有效的治理需要平衡安全措施与公民自由,避免国家痴迷的心态.
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