对成本最低的脱碳电力系统的技术成本预测不确定性的影响
Lei Duan1,2, Ken Caldeira1,3
1Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
iScience
|December 29, 2023
概括
未来成本的不确定性使得难以预测脱碳电力系统的主导技术. 建议采用投资组合方法来降低成本和代决策,以减轻风险.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 技术预测 技术预测
背景情况:
- 脱碳的电力系统对于减缓气候变化至关重要.
- 未来的技术成本预测是高度不确定的.
- 国家可再生能源实验室 (NREL) 2021年年度技术基线提供关键成本数据.
研究的目的:
- 研究未来成本不确定性对成本最低的脱碳电力系统技术组合的影响.
- 在不同的成本预测下评估主导技术的可预测性.
- 为清洁能源技术降低成本的战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用一种风格化的模型来模拟电力系统配置.
- 纳入了NREL 2021年度技术基准数据集中的各种成本预测.
- 分析了成本不确定性对脱碳系统技术选择的影响.
主要成果:
- 未来技术成本的高度不确定性使得对成本最低的去碳化系统的主导技术的自信预测无法实现.
- 单个技术成本的降低并不能保证全系统的成本节约或广泛部署.
- 竞争和互补技术成本降低工作的成功显著影响整体系统结果.
结论:
- 建议采用投资组合方法来降低技术成本.
- 过度依赖不确定的成本突破带来了低于最佳或昂贵结果的风险.
- 循环决策与持续学习可以有效地减轻开发脱碳能源系统的风险.
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